Working Papers

Working papers of the Chair in Decarbonization are intended to stimulate discussion within the research community and among users of research. Each has been reviewed by at least one internal referee before publication. Their content may have been submitted or will be later submitted for publication in an academic journal. Working papers of the Chair may be freely quoted and reproduced provided the source is acknowledged.

► Comparison of the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations with Fuel Carbon Intensity Standards in California, Oregon and British Columbia

Working Paper of the JCCTRP published on October 6, 2022

Julie Witcover (UC Davis), Mark Purdon (UQAM), Colin Murphy (UC Davis), Melissa Cusack Striepe (UToronto), Heather L. MacLean (UToronto) and Lew Fulton (UC Davis)

Abstract: Written as part of the Joint Clean Climate Transport Research Partnership (JCCTRP), this report compares the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) with similar instruments that have been developed in British Columbia, Oregon and California. The report describes the instruments in detail to highlight their similarities and differences. Aspects of the standards compared include program objectives and mandated carbon intensity (CI) reduction trajectories, scope of regulated fossil fuels and firms, life cycle assessment (LCA) methods for assigning CI ratings to fuels and associated credit-generating protocols, the credit market and related compliance mechanisms, as well as governance and administrative issues. We also briefly address key topics associated with harmonization and linkage of programs, before concluding. Overall, broad compatibilities in program design may work to incentivize a larger pool of lower carbon fuels, even though jurisdictions maysometimes compete for existing fuels. At the same time, differences in program design, trajectory, policy environment, and implementation might complicate any initiative to combine programs into a single low-carbon fuel standard in North America. Jurisdictions who have taken the lead on establishing North American fuel CI standards have rightfully focused on harmonizing standards, and should do so to the extent possible while recognizing regional differences. However, a common North American clean fuel credit market appears unlikely, and perhaps unnecessary, in the near- to mid-term.

► Evaluating the transformational impact of a forest carbon offsetting programme in Uganda: Lessons from a ten-year investigation into the Trees for Global Benefits programme

Working Paper published on May 3, 2022

Mark Purdon (UQAM) and Patrick Byakagaba (Makerere University)

Abstract: In this working paper we consider the transformational impacts of transnational climate governance initiatives by investigating the Trees for Global Benefits (TFGB) programme, a forest carbon offset programme in Uganda operating on the “voluntary” carbon market under the Plan Vivo standard. Importantly, we take a comparative, quasi-experimental and longitudinal approach by comparing results from a 2019 field effort with data first collected in 2009. Such an approach offers us a unique perspective from which to evaluate the effectiveness of the TFGB programme in catalyzing transformational change and to compare with other theoretical frameworks that have been used to investigate the TFGB programme. Overall, our findings suggest that, while the programme has delivered benefits, it has not been as transformative as expected. We find the programme to be delivering positive but declining returns for TFGB participants while generating limited positive feedbacks and spillovers with non-participants. While such dynamics are associated with two theoretical frameworks previously used to interpret the TFGB programme (skewed benefits and discount theory), they also highlight the gap between the completion of upfront carbon payments by the 10th year of participation and anticipated timber harvest by its completion at the 20th/25th year. A number of recommendations are made that may allow for the transformational impact of the TFGB programme to be more fully realized.
Keywords: Carbon offsetting, forestry, transformational change, livelihoods, quasi-experimental methods, longitudinal research, Uganda
Suggested citation: Purdon M and Byakagaba P (2022) Evaluating the transformational impact of a forest carbon offsetting programme in Uganda: Lessons from a ten-year investigation into the Trees for Global Benefits programme — Working Paper No. 2022-1, Chaire sur la décarbonisation, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montréal.

► Regional Planning and Climate Change Mitigation in California

Working Paper of the JCCTRP published on May 2020

Genevieve Giuliano (USC), Sang-O Kim (USC) and Zakhary Mallet (USC)

Abstract: This working paper presents an overview of regional planning and climate change mitigation in California. This paper is motivated by the unique success of California in developing and implementing a comprehensive program of policies to address global climate change. It traces the history of environmental regulation in California and shows how climate change policy is the outgrowth of decades of increasingly stringent and broad environmental policy. This paper is also motivated by JCCTRP’s interest in the role of models. It shows how regional transportation modeling plays a critical role in meeting air pollution reduction targets, and how models can be used to achieve plans that meet the targets. The paper first presents the history of air quality regulation with focus on mobile sources. This is followed by a description of how air quality regulations have transitioned into more comprehensive greenhouse gas regulations in the 2000s with the introduction of Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, also known as “AB32”. The final section describes how federal and state regulation have affected regional transportation planning and discusses the role of models in the planning process. The paper closes with conclusions and some observations on what can be learned from California.